As peak season swings into full gear, the consensus among industry players for how shippers—and consumers expecting cheap, on-time deliveries—will fare in a struggling parcel express market can be summed up in one succinct phrase:

“It’s going to be gnarly.”

That prediction, as well as other more colorful versions along the same theme, is the consensus of shippers, carriers, and various industry analysts. All expect a record year—and record challenges—for parcel express carriers.

Logistics and warehouse managers are seeing their carefully crafted just-in-time supply chains and parcel shipping strategies snarled by a host of factors, many of which are beyond their direct control. And the volumes keep on coming. By one FedEx estimate, the industry benchmark of 100 million parcel packages per day, once expected in 2026, is already here. In its last quarterly report, UPS cited a 13% increase in average daily volume to some 20 million packages per day. Most of that increase came from e-commerce shipments and rising residential deliveries.

The continuing surge in e-commerce is a testament to how deeply, quickly—and permanently—consumer buying habits have changed, points out Dick Metzler, chief executive officer of Austin, Texas-based Lone Star Overnight (LSO), a regional parcel carrier serving Texas, Oklahoma, and parts of Arkansas. “I think Covid went on long enough to convince even the most ardent mall junkie that e-commerce and home delivery is a better way to spend your money and your time,” he says.

“It’s going to be more than the usual Black Friday mess,” says Rock Magnan, president of Silicon Valley-based RK Logistics Group, which handles e-commerce orders for clients shipping digital sound systems, home appliances, and other consumer goods, of the upcoming holiday season. Shippers and their 3PLs (third-party logistics service providers) will need to be more creative, agile, and flexible than ever before. “Plans and solutions needed to be in place a month ago” to have some relative assurance of parcel capacity, he notes.

One alternative strategy that avoids the parcel carrier for last mile, Magnan notes, is store-door pickup. In this instance, manufacturers are forward-stocking more products at retailers like The Home Depot, Walmart, Kohl’s, or Lowes. When a consumer orders a product online, instead of it going into the parcel carrier’s network for delivery, the buyer is given the option to pick it up at their local store. “So, if you are ordering your DeWalt miter saw for Christmas, you pick it up yourself locally,” he says. “That avoids potential service delays and costs from already-strapped parcel networks.”

BEING A “SHIPPER OF CHOICE”

One executive who can speak to the need for advance planning is John Janson, senior director of global logistics at Issaquah, Washington-based SanMar, a producer of logoed apparel, caps, and other merchandise. Janson directs an operation with 10 national distribution centers and over 5 million square feet of warehouse space—and tenders hundreds of thousands of parcel shipments annually.

“We started to plan for peak season months ago,” he notes. “If you haven’t already done [your planning] and secured capacity, you’re too late.”

He shares a comment made by a UPS executive at the recent CSCMP (Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals) conference, where the executive projected that during the height of this peak season, there will be 4.5 million packages per day that the parcel express industry will not have capacity to handle. “If you extrapolate that out, that is 100 million packages [that won’t get picked up] over the entire peak season,” Janson notes.